North American Box Office In Desperate Need of ‘Captain Marvel’s’ Help

The 2019 box office continued to limp along this weekend as the pricey, long-delayed Fox sci-fi action flick Alita: Battle Angel opened to modest numbers in first place. The Warner comedy Isn’t It Romantic found some love in third place while Universal/Blumhouse’s Happy Death Day 2U found few takers in fifth.

Without a Black Panther, Deadpool or Fifty Shades of Grey to give it a major boost, the 2019 President’s Day frame was the worst in a decade and a half. While the top ten was up 11% from last weekend’s weak numbers, it was down a massive 61% from one year ago when Black Panther earned over $200 million on its own. Given the general public’s continued disinterest in what Hollywood is offering these days, one has to wonder how much different the weekend grosses may have been had Disney opted to unleash Captain Marvel this weekend instead of on March 8th.


Landing this past Thursday on 3,790 screens, Fox’s Alita: Battle Angel fought its way to an estimated $36.5 million in its first four days. For the three-day weekend frame, Alita grossed $27.8 million. The $170 million production –directed by Robert Rodriguez and written and produced by James Cameron-, has seen its release date bounced around the calendar several times before landing on a mid-February release date.

The date shifting from a prime summer spot to the dead of winter is usually a sign that the studio is looking to make a quick buck from less-than-ideal product in an empty marketplace. The mixed reviews Alita garnered from critics confirm that, with most stating that the film is great on style and not so great on substance. Alita scored a 59% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 54/100 from Metacritic. The voices that really matter in the end –the public- were more supportive of the 3D spectacular. They gave the film an encouraging “A-“ on CinemaScore. That could power Alita to a few solid weeks of box office returns here in North America until Captain Marvel arrives.

Given the film’s modest domestic opening and huge production budget, Fox will need to rely on international markets to push Alita into profitability. With $94 million brought in already from international markets, it appears to be well on its way. Alita’s two biggest markets, China and Japan, open the film over the next few weeks. If all goes well there, Alita could be looking at a final global haul between $550-600 million.

After its underwhelming debut one week ago, Warner’s The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part made the most of the long President’s Day weekend by earning an estimated $21.2 million from 4,303 theaters. Down 38%, LEGO 2 has brought in an okay $62.6 million after ten days.

LEGO 2 is facing serious competition starting on Thursday in the form of How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, which is looking at an opening north of $45 million. If LEGO 2 manages to withstand the critically-acclaimed return of Toothless, it might finish its domestic run near the $100 million mark. A figure far, far below the $267 million earned by the original LEGO Movie five years ago. Overseas, LEGO 2 has earned a meek $34 million to date.

The sole “romantic” film to open on Valentine’s Day this year was Warner’s comedy Isn’t It Romantic, which landed in third place with a platonic $14.2 million from 3,444 theaters ($20.4 million since Thursday). The Rebel Wilson comedy received mostly positive notices from the press. They gave Romantic a 69% approval on Rotten Tomatoes and a 60/100 on Metacritic. Ticket buyers polled on CinemaScore were a bit more smitten with the comedy. They gave it an “A-.”

Paramount’s What Men Want fell to fourth place in its second weekend on 2,912 screens, earning an estimated $10.9 million. The Taraji P. Henson headliner has earned a respectable $36.1 million after ten days and should finish with roughly $55 million in domestic ticket sales.

Rounding out the top five was the weekend’s third wide release, the Universal sequel Happy Death Day 2U with an estimated $9.8 million from 3,207 theaters ($13.5 million since Wednesday). Originally expected to give Alita a run for its money over the holiday weekend, it appears that most of the people who turned the first Happy Death Day into a modest hit had no need for a second helping. Critics gave the $9 million Blumhouse production a 66% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 56/100 on Metacritic.

  1.  Cold Pursuit (Lionsgate) $6 million (-46%); $21.1 million
  2.  The Upside (STX) $5.6 million (-21%); $95 million
  3.  Glass (Universal) $3.8 million (-38%); $104 million
  4.  The Prodigy (Orion) $3 million (-46%); $11 million
  5.  Green Book (Universal) $2.7 million (-20%); $65.7 million

Next weekend sees the arrival of How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World –which has earned $173 million so far overseas- and the comedy/drama Fighting With My Family.

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